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Airbus foresees demand for some 25,000 aircraft in the next 20 years

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17 September 2009
Demand for larger eco-efficient aircraft

Some 25,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at US$3.1 trillion will be delivered from 2009 to 2028, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast. Emerging economies, evolving airline networks, expansion of low cost carriers and the increasing number of mega-cities as well as traffic growth and the replacement of older less efficient aircraft with more eco-efficient airliners are factors driving demand for new aircraft.

Larger aircraft in all size categories are required to help ease aircraft congestion and to accommodate growth on existing routes and to achieve more with less. Compared to timescales for aircraft investment and fleet turnover, economic down cycles are relatively short and a strong underlying demand for air travel will drive growth. In 2009, a decline in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK’s) of two per cent is expected to be followed by a rise of 4.6 per cent in 2010.

The forecast anticipates that in the next 20 years, passenger traffic RPK’s will remain resilient to the cyclical effects of the sector and increase by 4.7 per cent per year or double in the next 15 years. This will require a demand for almost 24,100 new passenger aircraft valued at US$2.9 trillion. With the replacement of some 10,000 older passenger aircraft, the world’s passenger aircraft fleet of 100 seats or more will double from some 14,000 today.

Airfreight tonne kilometres (FTKs) is forecast to increasing annually by 5.2 per cent. Combined with fleet renewal, this creates a demand for some 3,440 freighters. More than 850 of these are new aircraft valued at US$210 billion, with the remainder converted from passenger aircraft.

“Air transportation is a growth industry, and an essential ingredient in the world economy,” says Airbus Chief Operating Officer Customers John Leahy. “Technology and innovation are key drivers for an eco-efficient aviation sector, and Airbus is at the forefront of both.”

Aviation also benefits individuals in every region of the world, with the number growing as aviation prospers. Oxford Economics predicts that in 20 years time, air transport will directly employ 8.5 million people worldwide and contribute US$1 trillion annually to world GDP. Tourism and indirect benefits are even bigger.

The greatest demand for passenger aircraft will be from airlines in Asia-Pacific and emerging markets. The region that includes the People’s Republic of China and India accounts for 31 per cent of the total, followed by Europe (25 per cent) and North America (23 per cent). In terms of domestic passenger markets, India (10 per cent) and China (7.9 per cent) will have the fastest growth over the next 20 years. The largest by volume of traffic, will remain domestic US.

Air traffic growth, increased frequencies, cost reduction, environmental responsibilities and airport congestion are increasingly influencing airlines to capitalise on the benefits of larger aircraft, particularly within aircraft families by minimising training and maintenance costs.

For example, in the US in 2007, airlines wasted 740 million gallons of fuel in congestion delays, equivalent to 32,000 London to New York flights. Bigger aircraft with reduced CO2 emissions are a solution. In the last 10 years aircraft have increased in size by three per cent and Airbus predicts that by 2028, the average aircraft will be 26 per cent bigger than today.

Airbus foresees demand for Very Large Aircraft (VLA) seating more than 400 passengers, like the A380, at above 1,700. Valued at US$571 billion, this represents 19 per cent by value of passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries, or seven per cent of aircraft units. Of these, nearly 1,318 will be needed to link the world’s most dynamic destination ‘mega’ cities, which are steadily increasing in number and size. This inevitably leads to a greater concentration of traffic. More than 50 per cent of the world’s VLA’s will be operated by airlines in the Asia Pacific region.

In the twin-aisle aircraft segment (seating from 250 to 400 passengers), some 6,250 new passenger and freighter aircraft will be delivered in the next 20 years, valued at some US$1,300 billion, or 42 per cent by value, 25 per cent by units. Of these, 4,240 aircraft will be small twin-aisle (250 to 300 seater) and about 2,010 intermediate twin aisles (350 to 400 seater). These segments are covered by the A330/A340 family. From 2013, the A350XWB family will cover the entire spectrum of twin aisle market requirements.

In the single-aisle segment, almost 17,000 aircraft worth some US$1,200 billion or 39 per cent by value, 68 per cent by units, will be delivered in the next 20 years. This is an increase over previous forecasts due to the emergence of low-cost carriers and increased route liberalisation and an accelerating demand for single aisle aircraft in Asia.


Boeing Delivers 12-Nation Strategic Airlift Capability’s 2nd C-17 Globemaster III

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LONG BEACH, Calif., Sept. 17, 2009 — The Boeing Company [NYSE: BA] today delivered to the NATO Airlift Management Organization (NAMO) a second C-17 Globemaster III that will support NAMO’s 12-nation Strategic Airlift Capability (SAC) initiative. The delivery took place at Boeing’s final assembly facility in Long Beach.

The advanced airlifter, known as SAC 02, is the second of three C-17s that will be assigned to SAC’s Heavy Airlift Wing (HAW) in western Hungary this year and will support International Security Assistance Force operations in Afghanistan as well as the airlift requirements of SAC member nations. Boeing will deliver SAC 03 in early October.

“Delivery of SAC 02 is a tremendous milestone, achieved in less than three years,” said Bogdan Horvat, Chairman, NAMO board of directors. “I congratulate all of the participating nations, the Heavy Airlift Wing, NAMO, and the Boeing team that built such a tremendous airlifter.”

The SAC group includes 10 NATO nations — Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, United States — and Partnership for Peace members Sweden and Finland. They will share acquisition and operating costs for the fleet of three C-17s over a nearly 30-year agreement. SAC’s approach to shared use of the strategic airlifter is regarded as a model for the pooled acquisition and management of defense capabilities.

“This effort symbolizes solidarity at its best — 12 nations demonstrating what can be accomplished when they pool resources and goodwill to collectively serve those in need around the world,” said Gunnar Borch, General Manager of the NATO Airlift Management Agency (NAMA), the executive body of NAMO. “This is on display here today in Long Beach and at Pápa Air Base in Hungary, where multinational forces are working side-by-side to support the SAC mission and one another.”

NAMA is responsible for the acquisition, day-to-day management, and support of the C-17 fleet on behalf of NATO and all participating SAC nations. The HAW is operated by multinational crews from the 12 participating nations.

“Every day, on the flight line at Pápa Air Base, I have the privilege of seeing the men and women from the SAC nations serving together — their teamwork on display, their sense of purpose clear, their commitment to serving those in need unwavering,” said Col. Fredrik Héden, deputy wing commander, HAW. “The 12-nation mix of NATO and Partnership for Peace nations found it possible to work together to make SAC a reality, and because of that we are now prepared to meet today’s humanitarian needs and security challenges.”

A Boeing team based at Pápa provides support for the SAC C-17s, including material management and depot maintenance support, under Boeing Global Services & Support’s C-17 Globemaster III Sustainment Partnership.

“Boeing is so proud to be a part of this effort,” Jean Chamberlin, Boeing vice president and general manager, Global Mobility Systems, said to the customer representatives at the delivery ceremony. “You will continue to have our support, wherever and whenever you need us.”


Boeing Flies Harpoon Missile With Updated Guidance Control

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ST. LOUIS, Sept. 16, 2009 — A Boeing [NYSE: BA] Harpoon Block II missile equipped with a redesigned Guidance Control Unit (GCU) flew for the first time in a test conducted on Sept. 10. It was launched from the USS Princeton off the coast of California and scored a direct hit on a land-based target on San Nicolas Island, Calif.

The new GCU, which controls most of the missile’s functions, incorporates a Selective Availability Anti-Spoofing Module (SAASM) Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver to improve GPS security. In addition, the GCU resolves obsolescence issues and can accommodate possible future implementation of a data link for network centric operations.

“The implementation of the new GCU reinforces Boeing’s vision for Harpoon’s long-term viability,” said Jim Young, Boeing Harpoon/SLAM ER Weapons program manager. “Boeing’s investment in this technology eliminates obsolescence and will give Harpoon customers a weapon system with the flexibility to upgrade to meet current and future needs.”

Boeing began developing the new GCU in 2007 to provide a common guidance system for Block II and future versions of the Harpoon missile. All new Harpoon missiles will incorporate the redesigned GCU. Boeing has delivered more than 7,100 Harpoon missiles to the United States and 28 allied partners.

Harpoon Block II executes both anti-ship and land-strike missions. The 500-pound blast fragmentation warhead delivers lethal firepower against a variety of surface and land-based targets, including ships at sea, coastal defense sites, surface-to-air missile sites, exposed aircraft, port/industrial facilities and ships in port.


Boeing Projects $400 Billion Market for New Airplanes in China

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BEIJING, Sept. 16, 2009 — Boeing [NYSE: BA] detailed its 2009 market update for commercial airplanes for China region, forecasting a requirement for 3,770 new airplanes valued at $490 billion over the next 20 years. Over the forecast period, China is and will remain the largest market outside the United States for new commercial airplanes.

“China is the world’s most dynamic market for commercial airplanes,” said Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president – Marketing. “The strong domestic air travel growth in China in the first half of 2009 gives us confidence that the world aviation industry is beginning to recover.”

China air travel and air cargo market growth will cause China’s fleet to more than triple to 4,610 airplanes by 2028, to about as many airplanes as are operating in Europe today.

Single-aisle airplanes will account for 70 percent of the new purchases, driven by China’s fast-growing domestic market. Single-aisle airplanes such as the Boeing Next-Generation 737 will be the largest category, with 2,640 new airplane deliveries. Demand for intermediate twin-aisles, such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777, will result in approximately 790 airplane deliveries. When combined, the single-aisle and intermediate twin-aisle market will make up 91 percent of China’s total delivery dollars.

Demand will include a limited number of large airplanes (747-size and larger) to connect China with other major world destinations. The market forecast calls for about 75 airplanes in that category.

With China’s cargo markets leading the global industry, Chinese freight carriers will add about 300 freighter airplanes by 2028, almost quadrupling its total freighter fleet size.

The Boeing 2009 forecast combines today’s market environment with a long-term view that portrays how air transport will be transformed over the next 20 years. It’s an outlook that indicates continued strong fundamentals underlying the need for new airplanes — including economic growth, world trade, aviation market liberalization and new aircraft capabilities.

The detailed study enables Boeing to better work with airlines to support fleet plans in conjunction with the airlines’ future economic growth. The outlook facilitates Boeing’s strategic plans to drive the development of new airplanes and the improvement of existing models.

Worldwide, Boeing projects investments of $3.2 trillion for 29,000 new commercial airplanes to be delivered during the next 20 years.


Next Station Commander Shares Training, Flight on Twitter and Blog

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HOUSTON — NASA astronaut Jeff Williams, who will command the next
International Space Station mission, is using Twitter, a blog and
short video clips to provide a unique, behind the scenes insight into
his training in Russia. Once in orbit, Williams will become the first
space station commander to share his experiences using Twitter.

Williams Twitter username is Astro_Jeff. He is in his final month of
training at the Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center in Star City,
Russia. He will be providing a look at his experiences in Star City
and at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston.

Williams will launch to the space station aboard a Soyuz spacecraft
with Soyuz Commander Max Suraev and spaceflight participant Guy
Laliberte from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on Sept. 30.
Williams will become a flight engineer for the Expedition 21 crew
when he arrives at the complex and later will command Expedition 22.
He will spend six months in space.

Williams will be making his third trip to space. He first flew on
shuttle mission STS-101 in May 2000, during which he was the lead
spacewalker. He served as a flight engineer aboard the space station
for Expedition 13 in 2006. Williams has logged more than 193 days in
space, including more than 19 hours during three spacewalks.

To follow Williams on Twitter, visit:

http://www.twitter.com/Astro_Jeff

To read Williams’ blog, visit:

http://blogs.nasa.gov/cm/blog/2089

For Williams’ complete biography, visit:

http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/Bios/htmlbios/williamsj.html

For more information about the space station, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/station



NASA Lunar Satellite Begins Detailed Mapping of Moon’s South Pole

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GREENBELT, Md. — NASA reported Thursday that its Lunar Reconnaissance
Orbiter, or LRO, has successfully completed its testing and
calibration phase and entered its mapping orbit of the moon. The
spacecraft already has made significant progress toward creating the
most detailed atlas of the moon’s south pole to date. Scientists
released preliminary images and data from LRO’s seven instruments.

“The LRO mission already has begun to give us new data that will lead
to a vastly improved atlas of the lunar south pole and advance our
capability for human exploration and scientific benefit,” said
Richard Vondrak, LRO project scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight
Center in Greenbelt, Md.

LRO is scheduled for a one-year exploration mission in a polar orbit
of about 31 miles above the lunar surface, the closest any spacecraft
has orbited the moon. During the next year, LRO will produce a
complete map of the lunar surface in unprecedented detail, search for
resources and safe landing sites for human explorers, and measure
lunar temperatures and radiation levels.

“The LRO instruments, spacecraft, and ground systems continue to
operate essentially flawlessly,” said Craig Tooley, LRO project
manager at Goddard “The team completed the planned commissioning and
calibration activities on time and also got a significant head start
collecting data even before we moved to the mission’s mapping orbit.”

The south pole of the moon is of great interest to explorers because
potential resources such as water ice or hydrogen may exist there.
Permanently shadowed polar craters that are bitterly cold at their
bottoms may hold deposits of water ice or hydrogen from comet impacts
or the solar wind. The deposits may have accumulated in these
“cold-trap” regions over billions of years. If enough of these
resources exist to make mining practical, future long-term human
missions to the moon potentially could save the considerable expense
of hauling water from Earth.

First results from LRO’s Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector, or LEND,
indicate that permanently shadowed and nearby regions may harbor
water and hydrogen. Additional observations will be needed to confirm
this. LEND relies on a decrease in neutron radiation from the lunar
surface to indicate the presence of water or hydrogen.

“If these deposits are present, an analysis of them will help us
understand the interaction of the moon with the rest of the solar
system,” Vondrak said.

Data from LRO’s Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter, or LOLA, however,
indicates that exploring these areas will be challenging because the
terrain is very rough. The roughness is probably a result of the lack
of atmosphere and absence of erosion from wind or water, according to
David Smith, LOLA principal investigator at Goddard.

LRO’s other instruments also are providing data to help map the moon’s
terrain and resources. According to the first measurements from the
Diviner instrument, large areas in the permanently shadowed craters
are about minus 400 degrees Fahrenheit (33 Kelvin), more than cold
enough to store water ice or hydrogen for billions of years.

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera is providing high-resolution
images of permanently shadowed regions while lighting conditions
change as the moon’s south pole enters lunar summer.

LRO’s Lyman Alpha Mapping Project, or LAMP, also is preparing to
search for surface ice and frost in the polar regions. The instrument
provides images of permanently shadowed regions illuminated only by
starlight and the glow of interplanetary hydrogen emission. LAMP has
provided information to confirm the instrument is working well on
both the lunar night and day sides.

The Mini RF Technology Demonstration on LRO has confirmed
communications capability and produced detailed radar images of
potential targets for LRO’s companion mission, the Lunar Crater
Observation and Sensing Satellite, which will impact the moon’s south
pole on Oct. 9.

Meanwhile, LRO’s Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation
instrument is exploring the lunar radiation environment and its
potential effects on humans during record high, “worst-case” cosmic
ray intensities accompanying the extreme solar minimum conditions of
this solar cycle.

Goddard built and manages LRO, a NASA mission with international
participation from the Institute for Space Research in Moscow. Russia
provides the neutron detector aboard the spacecraft.

For more information about LRO and to view the new images, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/lro